Evaluation and Ranking of Citrus Gardens’ Risks Using TOPSIS Method (Case Study: East of Mazandaran Province)

Abstract

Citrus production has a great importance and position in Iran. The growth and sustainability of the agriculture sector is impossible without appropriate and effective risk identification and management. In this study, the main risks of citrus gardens were identified based on the Delphi method through questionnaires completed by 16 experts. Then, using the TOPSIS technique, the risks involved in the horticultural industry of Mazandaran Province were prioritized during 2010–2016, and the most important risk of Mazandaran gardens was selected based on the Shannon unweighted entropy matrix. The results showed that the most important horticultural risks were related to the risks of pests and diseases, price, damage, and production, respectively. In addition, the lowest risks were related to technical, labor and credit risks, respectively. Therefore, the results indicated the significant influence of the risks of pests and diseases, price, and loss in horticulture. Among the risks of pests and diseases, mealy bugs, red mites, and aphids with 76, 73, and 70 percent, respectively, were of the highest risk, and risks arising from financing, purchasing the product, and the damage caused by drip irrigation and emitters were of the lowest risk. The risk exposure represented that risk management should be considered in these fields. In this regard, it is essential to make major reforms in risk management areas involved in orchards. Thus, the planners and policymakers must consider this issue.