Optimal Cropping Pattern Modifications with the Aim of Environmental-Economic Decision Making Under Uncertainty

Abstract

Sustainability in agriculture is determined by aspects like economy, society, and environment. The multi-objective programming (MOP) model has been a widely used tool for studying and analyzing the sustainability of agricultural systems. However, optimization models in most applications are forced to use data that is uncertain. Recently, robust optimization has been used as an optimization model that incorporates uncertainty. This paper develops a framework for environmental-economic decision-making that includes the environmental and economic sustainability criteria for determining an optimal allocation of agricultural areas that cover an irrigation network under uncertain data. The primary uncertain parameter of the robust model was the quantity of available water for each season. Application of the proposed model to the case study of the right side of the Nekooabad irrigation network in the province of Isfahan, Iran, demonstrates the reliability and flexibility of the model. The results show that the optimal total gross margin decreases with higher robustness levels. To compensate for the loss of gross margin of farmers in the robust pattern, efficiency enhancement policies were emphasized.