Investigating the Effect of Variations in Irrigation Water Price on Cropping Pattern and Gross Margin under Uncertainty (Case Study: Khorasan Razavi)

Abstract

Water shortage crisis is an issue that has led to drasticchanges in different agricultural policies, especially inarid and semi-arid areas. Uncertainty in the amount of resources,e.g. water, used for agricultural production entails risk forfarmers' income and cropping pattern changes. In the presentstudy, the robust optimization model was used for optimal allocationof arable lands of Khorasan Razavi Province underuncertainty. During the allocation, the effect of water inputprice variations on total gross margin and cropping patternwas considered. It was found that under certain data, both parametersof total gross margin and total acreage are more thanuncertain data. Given that water price variations resulted intangible changes in wheat acreage, it is recommended to adoptappropriate policies to reduce its production risk.