Received: 2025-08-02
Revised: 2025-10-31
Accepted: 2025-10-31
Published in Issue 2026-09-30
Copyright (c) 2026 Aminollah Sahab Mahmoodi, Mohammad Reza Gili, Iman Saeedi (Author)

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
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Abstract
Protected areas worldwide face hard trade-offs between biodiversity conservation and supporting local livelihoods. This study was conducted to integrate the Fuzzy Delphi and Interpretive Structural Modeling (ISM) to evaluate socio-economic threats in Almabolaq protected area, Hamedan province, Iran, in 2023. This research was based on expert input from 16 specialists, who identified 10 key threats, including overgrazing, land-use changes, burning of shrubs, and the use of pesticides, which substantially contributed to biodiversity loss. The fuzzy Delphi analysis of 21 factors using triangular fuzzy numbers (Definite Value threshold = 3.65) revealed that among the 10 threats, overgrazing, with a value of 4.58 ± 0.14, accounted for 11.6% of the total threats, had the highest rank. The ISM modeling organized these threats into a four-tier strategy: Level 1: prioritize education and awareness. Level 2: had focused on strengthening legal oversight and managing population pressures. Level 3: emphasized enhanced management practices and social awareness, and Level 4: emphasized specific conservation interventions, such as determining grazing boundaries and promoting sustainable practices. Notably, community engagement emerged as the most influential strategy, effectively linking conservation objectives with local socio-economic needs.By explicitly addressing these trade-offs, our study provides actionable recommendations for policymakers and protected area managers, offering a practical framework to balance ecological integrity with sustainable human development.
Keywords
- Biodiversity Conservation,
- Iran,
- Environmental Modeling,
- Socio-economic Drivers,
- Sustainable Development
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10.57647/JRS.2026.1603.22
