10.57647/JRS.2026.1602.14

Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Current and Future Distribution of Ferula Ovina Boiss Species in Central Zagros, Iran

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  • Elham Fakhimi*1,
  • Morteza Khodagholi2,
  • Saleh Yousefi3,
  • Aleksandar Valjarević4,
  • Razieh Saboohi4,
  • Hamzehali Shirmardi1,
  1. Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Shahrekord, Iran
  2. Research Institute of Forests and Rangelands, AREEO, Tehran, Iran
  3. Faculty of Geography, University of Belgrade, Studentski Trg 3/III, 11000 Belgrade, Serbia
  4. Esfahan Agricultural and Natural Resources Research and Education Center, AREEO, Esfahan, Iran

Received: 2024-08-13

Revised: 2025-07-14

Accepted: 2025-07-28

Published in Issue 2026-06-30

Copyright (c) 2026 Elham Fakhimi, Morteza Khodagholi, Saleh Yousefi, Aleksandar Valjarević, Razieh Saboohi, Hamzehali Shirmardi (Author)

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This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Fakhimi, E., Khodagholi, M., Yousefi, S., Valjarević, A., Saboohi, R., & Shirmardi, H. (2026). Predicting the Effects of Climate Change on the Current and Future Distribution of Ferula Ovina Boiss Species in Central Zagros, Iran. Journal of Rangeland Science, 16(2). https://doi.org/10.57647/JRS.2026.1602.14
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Abstract

Climate change has become a serious challenge over the last century, and studying its effects on the distribution of plant species is necessary to sustainably manage and protect rangelands. This study investigates the current and future distribution range of Ferula ovina Boiss species in the central Zagros region in Chaharmahal and Bakhtiari province for the year 2050 under two main climate change scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. To achieve this, 19 bioclimatic variables were calculated using long-term data series from 10 meteorological stations in the central Zagros area. Additionally, physiographic variables including: slope, aspect, and hypsometry were derived from a digital elevation model with a 30 m resolution. The points of species presence and absence were determined using logistic regression. The vegetative behaviors of the species and their equations were calculated under current conditions, and their map was modeled. In the next step, bioclimatic data for the next three decades were extracted from the WorldClim.org website, and the extracted data were substituted into the equations for current conditions. Finally, the future distribution of F. ovina species for the next three decades was determined under two RCP scenarios, 4.5 and 8.5. Among the bioclimatic variables, BIO1 (annual temperature), BIO10 (average temperature of the warmest month), and BIO11 (average temperature of the coldest month) are the most important for the habitat suitability of F. ovina species. The mentioned variables increase in value as climatic conditions become more challenging. The elevation of its suitable habitat will increase by 200-500 m, and as a result, the area of suitable habitat decreases in response to climate change. Under the pessimistic climate scenario, 65% of suitable habitats will be lost by 2050, and the current unsuitable habitats will increase by about 8%. Overall, climate change and rising temperatures will cause the vertical displacement and movement of F. ovina species towards higher geographical latitudes, indicating a drastic reduction in its presence in the central Zagros habitats over the next three decades.

Keywords

  • Habitat modeling,
  • Climate change scenario,
  • Logistic regression,
  • Bioclimatic variables
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