Modeling the Impact of Climate Change on Peanut Production on the Basis of Increasing 2C Temperature in Future Environmental Conditions of Guilan Province, Iran

Abstract

To evaluate the effect of climate change on peanut production in Northern Iran on the basis of 2oC rise in temperature, a study was conducted using the SSM-Peanut. The simulation was done based on the long-term data obtained from synoptic stations in Guilan including Anzali, Astara, Kiashahr (Astaneh Ashrafieh), Lahijan, Rasht (Agriculture station), Rasht (Airport station), Roudsar and Talesh. When model was run for each year and each scenario, the following parameters were recorded in the outputs: days to beginning bloom, days to beginning pod, days to beginning seed, days to harvest maturity, maximum leaf area index, accumulated crop dry matter, seed yield, and pod yield. Data analysis: data analysis was done using SPSS 18. Furthermore, from ArcGIS was used for zoning of Guilan in terms of peanut production in the current condition and after the climate change. To compare the difference between peanut growth and yield in the current condition and when the climate change happens, t-test and discriminant analysis were used. The results showed that there is a statistically significant difference in terms of all parameters between the current condition and after climate change 2oC rise in temperature) in Guilan Province. With the rise temperature, average peanut growth period in Guilan decreased from 142 days to 123 days. Generally, the average peanut yield changes in Guilan with 2-degree rise in temperature is 8.73 percent more than that in the current condition.