The Effects of Climate Change on Iran's Sugarcane Production (Case study: Khuzestan Sugarcane)

Abstract

Climate change stemming from global warming poses a significant threat that necessitates comprehensive and concerted global action. The agricultural sector, crucial for Iran's production cycle and food security, is particularly vulnerable to climate change, given the country's hot and arid climate. Iran faces a heightened risk of climate change impacts, exacerbating its existing vulnerabilities. Notably, Khuzestan province hosts major sugarcane industries, where significant and escalating changes in climatic variables have been observed. This article explores the repercussions of climate change on the sugarcane industry in Khuzestan province over the period of 1971–2020. Utilizing the Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) econometric model, the study examines the impact of climate factors, such as temperature and precipitation, on sugarcane production. The findings unveil a nonlinear relationship between climatic factors and production, particularly temperature and precipitation. The observed nonlinear relationship, depicted as an inverted U shape in the graph, underscores the significance of climate change for agricultural production. While government ownership and exclusive rights over sugarcane cultivation in Khuzestan were expected to foster prosperity and maximize productivity, the sugarcane system has gradually evolved to prioritize sustainable self-sufficiency as the ultimate goal. However, climate change has posed significant challenges to achieving this goal. In conclusion, the negative ramifications of climate change on sugarcane production underscore the urgency of action. Recommendations include minimizing human intervention in nature, diversifying crop varieties to ones more resilient to climate change, altering cultivation patterns, and implementing supportive policies to mitigate the effects of climate change on the sugarcane industry.