10.57647/ijamad.2025.17013

Evaluating Iranian Pistachio Export Potential: A Comprehensive Analysis Utilizing the Random Border Gravity Model

  1. Department of Agricultural Economic, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Zabol, Zabol, Iran

Received: 11-07-2025

Revised: 23-08-2025

Accepted: 04-09-2025

Published in Issue 30-09-2025

How to Cite

Vaezifar, S., Keikha, A., Dehbashi, V., Sargazi, A., Ahmadpour Borazjani, M., & Ziaee, S. (2025). Evaluating Iranian Pistachio Export Potential: A Comprehensive Analysis Utilizing the Random Border Gravity Model. International Journal of Agricultural Management and Development, 15(3). https://doi.org/10.57647/ijamad.2025.17013

PDF views: 24

Abstract

Currency fluctuations and the trade deficit in Iran’s net agricultural exports highlight the need for policy measures to boost agricultural exports. The agricultural sector not only plays a vital role in ensuring food security but also significantly contributes to economic development and non-oil exports. This study estimates the determinants of export efficiency and export potential for Iran’s pistachios to 32 trading partners from 2011 to 2022 using the Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Export potential represents the maximum possible export volume a country can achieve when trade restrictions are removed, offering valuable insights into untapped opportunities in global markets.The results indicate that the economic size of Iran and its trading partners positively affects pistachio exports, while the distance between capitals has a negative impact. The findings further show that variables such as population size, shared borders, and membership in trade agreements contribute positively to Iran’s pistachio exports. In contrast, factors such as economic sanctions, exchange rate volatility, and religious differences have no statistically significant effect on trade flows. Export efficiency reached its peak average during the 2014–2017 period. The K-means model reveals that trading partners were grouped into five distinct clusters, leading to the key policy recommendation that decision-makers should prioritize neighboring markets and strengthen trade relations through bilateral and multilateral agreements.

Keywords

  • Trade deficit,
  • GDP,
  • Efficiency,
  • Trade Partners

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