Modelling the effects of chemotherapy and relapse on the transmission dynamics of leprosy

Abstract

Abstract Purpose Although there is a declining trend in the global burden of leprosy, there are 15 countries in Asia and Africa which account for 94% of the global total of the new-case detection rate. Here, we assess the impact of different intervention strategies aimed at leprosy eradication through targeting non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals. Methods We develop a mathematical model of leprosy transmission and treatment amongst symptomatic and non-symptomatic, in order to investigate the effects of leprosy relapse cases, case finding of non-symptomatic individuals and compliance to therapy of individuals administered with treatment. Comparison theory has been qualitatively used to analyze the global stability of the disease-free equilibrium. With the aid of centre manifold theory, the local stability of the endemic equilibrium has been investigated. Population-level effects of increased case findings and high treatment rate (guaranteed by compliance and completion of therapy via educational campaigns) are evaluated through numerical simulations and presented in support of the analytical results. Results Comprehensive and qualitative mathematical analysis of the model reveals that, the disease-free equilibrium is globally, asymptotically stable whenever the reproductive number is less than unity. Further, we have established that the model has a locally, asymptotically stable endemic equilibrium when the reproductive number is greater, but close to unity. Numerical simulation suggests that case finding of non-symptomatic leprosy carriers, greater that 40% is necessary for reducing leprosy prevalence and maybe useful on attaining leprosy eradication. Conclusions At its best, the study suggests that high level of case finding targeting non-symptomatic and symptomatic individuals, together with high level of compliance by individuals on treatment, may have a substantial effect on controlling leprosy relapses and possible may assist on attaining leprosy eradication.