10.1007/s40095-021-00400-5

Energy security-based game theoretic approach for strategies selection in climate risk and energy resources management: a case study of Iran

  • Abdolvahhab Fetanat*1,
  • Ehsan Khorasaninejad2,
  • Gholamreza Shafipour3,
  1. Department of Electrical Engineering, Behbahan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Behbahan, IR
  2. Department of Mechanical Engineering, Behbahan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Behbahan, IR
  3. Young Researchers and Elite Club, Behbahan Branch, Islamic Azad University, Behbahan, IR

Published in Issue 2021-06-21

How to Cite

Fetanat, A., Khorasaninejad, E., & Shafipour, G. (2021). Energy security-based game theoretic approach for strategies selection in climate risk and energy resources management: a case study of Iran. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, 12(4 (December 2021). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-021-00400-5
Crossref
Scopus
Google Scholar
Europe PMC

Abstract

Abstract Policy-makers are interested in developing energy production systems to establish industrial and social demand for secured energy, and in this context, risk management related to climate change is satisfied. There is a high possibility that pursuit of energy policies goals in these areas could have impacts on energy security. This study, by the scope of energy security principles, seeks to achieve an efficient trade-off between climate risk management (CRM) and energy resources management (ERM), two players, in a multi-criteria decision-making-based game theoretic approach. It focuses on an urgent transition toward a new low carbon and climate-friendly energy production systems. Fuzzy analytic network process is adopted to decide the relative weights of energy security principles. Then the VIKOR method (a hybrid ranking method) is used to determine CRM’s strategies closeness to ERM’s strategies. The strategic interactions among players are evaluated in game theory perspective, and finally, efficient trade-offs between two players with respect to all energy security principles are determined. The power plants development in the city of Behbahan, southern Iran, is considered. The results show that five strategies are selected under energy security constraints and the model provides compromise solutions to help policy-makers evaluate suitable energy policy mix.

Keywords

  • Climate risk management,
  • Energy resources management,
  • Energy security,
  • Game theory,
  • Multi-criteria decision-making

References

  1. Booth et al. (2020) Stakeholder solutions for building interdisciplinary and international synergies between climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101616
  2. Jaffe, A.M., Busby, J., Blackburn, J., Copeland, C., Law, S., Ogden, J.M., Griffin, P.A.: Impact of Climate Risk on the Energy System: Examining the Financial, Security, and Technology Dimensions. Council on Foreign Relations (2019)
  3. Gerlak et al. (2018) Climate risk management and the electricity sector (pp. 12-22) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2017.12.003
  4. Nyiwul (2021) Climate change adaptation and inequality in Africa: Case of water, energy and food insecurity https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.123393
  5. Audinet, P., Amado, J.-C., Rabb, B.: Climate Risk Management Approaches in the Electricity Sector: Lessons from Early Adapters. In: Troccoli, A., Dubus, L., Haupt, S. (eds) Weather Matters for Energy. Springer, New York (2014).
  6. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-1-4614-9221-4_2
  7. Langholtz et al. (2014) Climate risk management for the U.S. cellulosic biofuels supply chain https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2014.05.001
  8. Schaeffer et al. (2012) Energy sector vulnerability to climate change: a review (pp. 1-12) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.11.056
  9. Troccoli et al. (2010) Weather and climate risk management in the energy sector https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2849.1
  10. Veit and Troccoli (2010) Climate Risk Management for the Energy Sector in Africa: The Role of the African Development Bank Environmental Security. Springer
  11. Garg et al. (2015) Energy infrastructure in India: profile and risks under climate change https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2014.12.007
  12. Fant et al. (2016) The impact of climate change on wind and solar resources in southern Africa https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.03.042
  13. Vainio et al. (2017) Weighing the risks of nuclear energy and climate change: Trust in different information sources, perceived risks, and willingness to pay for alternatives to nuclear power https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12640
  14. Hennessey et al. (2017) Co-benefits of integrating climate change adaptation and mitigation in the Canadian energy sector https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.09.025
  15. Wang et al. (2018) Role of renewable energy in China’s energy security and climate change mitigation: An index decomposition analysis (pp. 187-194) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2018.03.012
  16. Bertolotti et al. (2019) Climate risk in the US electric utility sector: a case study https://doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3347746
  17. McMahan and Gerlak (2020) Climate risk assessment and cascading impacts: Risks and opportunities for an electrical utility in the U.S. Southwest https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2020.100240
  18. Ghadge et al. (2020) Modelling the impact of climate change risk on bioethanol supply chains https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120227
  19. Wang et al. (2014) Efficiency assessment of hydroelectric power plants in Canada: A multi criteria decision making approach https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eneco.2014.09.001
  20. Hillebrand (2013) Climate protection, energy security, and Germany’s policy of ecological modernisation https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2013.806627
  21. Vieira and Dalgaard (2013) The energy-security-climate-change nexus in Brazil https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2013.806633
  22. Toke and Vezirgiannidou (2013) The relationship between climate change and energy security: key issues and conclusions https://doi.org/10.1080/09644016.2013.806631
  23. Mathews (2014) Renewable energy technologies: Panacea for world energy security and climate change? (pp. 731-737) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.procs.2014.05.483
  24. Strambo et al. (2015) Coherent or inconsistent? Assessing energy security and climate policy interaction within the European Union https://doi.org/10.1016/j.erss.2015.04.004
  25. Vinodan and Kurian (2015) Energy security and climate change: India’s responses to the challenges https://doi.org/10.32890/jis2015.11.3
  26. Duan and Wang (2018) Potential impacts of China’s climate policies on energy security https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eiar.2018.04.007
  27. Proskuryakova (2018) Updating energy security and environmental policy: energy security theories revisited https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.06.016
  28. García-Gusano and Iribarren (2018) Prospective energy security scenarios in Spain: The future role of renewable power generation technologies and climate change implications https://doi.org/10.1016/j.renene.2018.03.044
  29. Jääskeläinen et al. (2018) Energy security impacts of a severe drought on the future Finnish energy system https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2018.03.017
  30. Shah et al. (2019) Energy security and environmental sustainability index of South Asian countries: a composite index approach https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolind.2019.105507
  31. Deng and Farah (2020) China’s energy policies and strategies for climate change and energy security https://doi.org/10.1093/jwelb/jwaa018
  32. Brown and Huntington (2008) Energy security and climate change protection: complementarity or tradeoff? https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2008.05.027
  33. Chalvatzis and Hooper (2009) Energy security vs. climate change: Theoretical framework development and experience in selected EU electricity markets (pp. 2703-2709) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2009.07.013
  34. Bang (2010) Energy security and climate change concerns: triggers for energy policy change in the United States? https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2009.01.045
  35. Bazilian et al. (2011) Interactions between energy security and climate change: a focus on developing countries https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2011.04.003
  36. Rogers-Hayden et al. (2011) “Energy security” and “climate change”: constructing UK energy discursive realities https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.09.003
  37. Wu et al. (2012) Climate protection and China’s energy security: win-win or tradeoff https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2011.11.061
  38. O’brien (2012) Review of the potential of nuclear hydrogen for addressing energy security and climate change (pp. 55-65) https://doi.org/10.13182/NT12-A13547
  39. Ren et al. (2014) Viability of hydrogen pathways that enhance energy security: A comparison of China and Denmark https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijhydene.2014.07.150
  40. Bhave et al. (2016) Barriers and opportunities for robust decision making approaches to support climate change adaptation in the developing world (pp. 1-10) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.09.004
  41. Anderson and Kyveryga (2016) Combining on-farm and climate data for risk management of nitrogen decisions https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.03.002
  42. Sovacool and Brown (2010) Competing dimensions of energy security: an international perspective https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-environ-042509-143035
  43. Sovacool and Mukherjee (2011) Conceptualizing and measuring energy security: a synthesized approach https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2011.06.043
  44. Sovacool (2013) Assessing energy security performance in the Asia Pacific, 1990–2010 (pp. 228-247) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2012.09.031
  45. Sovacool (2013) An international assessment of energy security performance https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2013.01.019
  46. Shin and Choi (2015) Risk Perceptions in UK Climate change and energy policy narratives https://doi.org/10.1080/1523908X.2014.906301
  47. Ang et al. (2015) Energy security: Definitions, dimensions and indexes (pp. 1077-1093) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2014.10.064
  48. Yao and Chang (2014) Energy security in China: a quantitative analysis and policy implications https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2013.12.047
  49. APERC: A quest for Energy Security in The 21st Century (2007)
  50. Petty (2004) Modeling and validation challenges for complex systems (pp. 178-187) https://doi.org/10.1201/9781138046412-9
  51. Al-Aboosi (2020) Models and hierarchical methodologies for evaluating solar energy availability under different sky conditions toward enhancing concentrating solar collectors use: Texas as a case study (pp. 177-205) https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-019-00326-z
  52. Damodara et al. (2020) Flare performance modeling and set point determination using artificial neural networks (pp. 91-109) https://doi.org/10.1007/s40095-019-00314-3
  53. Wu et al. (2018) Site selection decision framework using fuzzy ANP-VIKOR for large commercial rooftop PV system based on sustainability perspective (pp. 454-470) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2018.04.024
  54. Tadić et al. (2014) A novel hybrid MCDM model based on fuzzy DEMATEL, fuzzy ANP and fuzzy VIKOR for city logistics concept selection (pp. 8112-8128) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.eswa.2014.07.021
  55. Abdel-Baset et al. (2019) An integrated neutrosophic ANP and VIKOR method for achieving sustainable supplier selection: a case study in importing field (pp. 94-110) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.compind.2018.12.017
  56. Feng et al. (2018) Environmentally friendly MCDM of reliability-based product optimisation combining DEMATEL-based ANP, interval uncertainty and Vlse Kriterijumska Optimizacija Kompromisno Resenje (VIKOR) (pp. 128-144) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ins.2018.02.038
  57. Hou et al. (2020) An equilibrium in group decision and its association with the Nash equilibrium in game theory (pp. 106-138) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cie.2019.106138
  58. Laanaia et al. (2016) How will climate change affect the vegetation cycle over France? A generic modeling approach https://doi.org/10.1016/j.crm.2016.06.001
  59. Sakhel (2017) Corporate climate risk management: Are European companies prepared? https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2017.07.056
  60. Valdés (2018) Arbitrariness in multidimensional energy security indicators https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2017.09.002
  61. Winzer (2012) Conceptualizing energy security https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2012.02.067
  62. Bessette et al. (2017) Building a values-informed mental model for New Orleans climate risk management https://doi.org/10.1111/risa.12743
  63. Groves and Lempert (2007) A new analytic method for finding policy-relevant scenarios https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2006.11.006
  64. Zadeh (1965) Fuzzy sets-information and control-1965 (pp. 338-358) https://doi.org/10.1016/S0019-9958(65)90241-X
  65. Saaty (2008) The analytic hierarchy and analytic network measurement processes: applications to decisions under risk (pp. 122-196) https://doi.org/10.29020/nybg.ejpam.v1i1.6
  66. Khorasaninejad et al. (2016) Prime mover selection in thermal power plant integrated with organic Rankine cycle for waste heat recovery using a novel multi criteria decision making approach https://doi.org/10.1016/j.applthermaleng.2016.04.058
  67. Opricovic and Tzeng (2004) Compromise solution by MCDM methods: a comparative analysis of VIKOR and TOPSIS https://doi.org/10.1016/S0377-2217(03)00020-1
  68. Wang, T.C., Chang, T.H.: Fuzzy VIKOR as a Resolution for Multi-criteria Group Decision-Making. The 11th International Conference on Industrial Engineering and Engineering Management, pp. 352–356. Paris, (2005)
  69. Kose et al. (2017) An integrated approach based on game theory and geographical information systems to solve decision problems https://doi.org/10.1016/j.amc.2017.03.020
  70. Lee et al. (2012) A wind turbine evaluation model under a multi-criteria decision making environment (pp. 289-300) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2012.03.029
  71. Ghezzi et al. (2015) A fuzzy framework assessing corporate resource management for the mobile content industry https://doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2015.01.004
  72. Gul et al. (2019) Pythagorean fuzzy VIKOR-based approach for safety risk assessment in mine industry https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jsr.2019.03.005
  73. Sharma et al. (2018) Ranking the Success Factors to Improve Safety and Security in Sustainable Food Supply Chain Management Using Fuzzy AHP (pp. 12187-12196) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.matpr.2018.02.196
  74. Fetanat et al. (2021) Water-energy-food security nexus based selection of energy recovery from wastewater treatment technologies: an extended decision making framework under intuitionistic fuzzy environment https://doi.org/10.1016/j.seta.2020.100937
  75. Zhang et al. (2019) Game analysis of charging service fee based on benefit of multi-party participants: A case study analysis in China https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101528
  76. Aplak and Sogut (2013) Game theory approach in decisional process of energy management for industrial sector https://doi.org/10.1016/j.enconman.2013.03.027
  77. Andoni et al. (2017) Game-theoretic modeling of curtailment rules and network investments with distributed generation https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.05.035
  78. Wu (2018) A game theory approach for assessing risk value and deploying search-and-rescue resources after devastating tsunamis https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envres.2017.12.008
  79. Khalid and Javaid (2019) Coalition based game theoretic energy management system of a building as-service-over fog https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2019.101509
  80. Abdoli, G.: Game THEORY and Its Applications (Static and Dynamic Games with Complete Information). Tehran University Press (2011)
  81. (in Persian)
  82. Souri, A.: Mathematic Economics: Methods and Applications. Organization for the Study and Compilation of Human Sciences Books (2011)
  83. (in Persian)
  84. Mostafaeipour et al. (2016) Evaluation of installing photovoltaic plants using a hybrid approach for Khuzestan province (pp. 60-74) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2016.01.105
  85. Tooran, N., Mehri, A., Vahid, R.: Potential of small hydroelectric power plants in Khuzestan province. In: 18th International Power System Conference (2003)
  86. http://www.marun.ir/Dam-martyrs.html
  87. .
  88. Ministry of Energy (Iran).
  89. http://rcewm.moe.gov.ir
  90. Brook et al. (2014) Why nuclear energy is sustainable and has to be part of the energy mix (pp. 8-16) https://doi.org/10.1016/j.susmat.2014.11.001