10.1186/2251-6832-4-36

Relationship between extreme temperature and electricity demand in Pakistan

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  • Muhammad Ali*1,
  • Muhammad Jawed Iqbal2,
  • Muhammad Sharif3,
  1. Mathematical Sciences Research Centre, Federal Urdu University of Arts Science and Technology, Karachi, PK
  2. Institute of Space and Planetary Astrophysics (ISPA), University of Karachi, Karachi, PK
  3. Department of Statistics, University of Karachi, Karachi, PK
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Published in Issue 2013-09-20

How to Cite

Ali, M., Iqbal, M. J., & Sharif, M. (2013). Relationship between extreme temperature and electricity demand in Pakistan. International Journal of Energy and Environmental Engineering, 4(1 (December 2013). https://doi.org/10.1186/2251-6832-4-36
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Abstract

Abstract Nowadays, different sectors of the economy are being significantly affected by the weather vagaries. Electricity market is one of the most sensitive sectors, due to the fact that electricity demand is connected to the numerous climatic variables, especially the atmospheric temperature. In this paper we have deduced the link between electricity consumption and mean monthly maximum temperature index in Pakistan, as a case study. ARIMA time series forecast model is developed for the temperature index. The forecast values of mean monthly maximum temperature shows an increasing trend. Linear trend model for electricity consumption is also developed as a function of temperature. Electricity consumption reveals a significant trend due to increase in temperature and socio- economic factors. The monthly behavior of our forecast values depicts that the electricity consumption is more for summer season, and this demand will be highest (6785.6 GWh) in July 2020, due to rise in temperature. Forecast model reveals that the electricity consumption (EC) and mean monthly maximum temperature are increasing with the passage of time.

Keywords

  • Maximum temperature index,
  • Electricity consumption,
  • Time series modeling,
  • Forecast model
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