Futures Studies of Gas Industry in Iran based on Fuzzy MCDM Methods and Critical Uncertainty Approach

Abstract

Huge gas resources are one of the main factors influencing Iran's overall economic policy and can define an effective strategy for overcoming existing crises and sanctions. Therefore, the present study seeks to identify the Iranian gas industry's key factors and plausible scenarios in the future. This study is applied research. Therefore, by examining the theoretical foundations and interviewing experts, the key factors affecting the gas industry's future were identified. Then, these factors were screened using a binomial test. Both critical uncertainty and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques were used to select the final drivers. The probabilistic scenario was also selected using the Fuzzy MOORA technique. International sanctions and pressures and technological learning were selected as the two drivers for scenario mapping using the critical uncertainty and Fuzzy DEMATEL techniques. Based on the results, four scenarios of "Gas Industry Paradise," "Oppressive World," "Abandoned Island," and "Gas Industry Hell" were developed. Each of these scenarios represented a situation for the future gas industry. According to the criteria of trend alignment, reality-based probability, and consistency with current data, the "Oppressive World" was selected as the most probable scenario. The "Gas Industry Paradise" scenario showed the best situation for relieving foreign sanctions and technological learning in the gas industry. On the other hand, the "Gas Industry Hell" scenario described an isolated and vulnerable system to threats.