OICC Press International Journal of Industrial Chemistry 2228-5547 15 2 2024 06 30 Research on the influencing factors of estimated ultimate recovery after shale gas well fracturing 10.57647/j.ijic.2024.1502.09 EN Jianxun Jianga College of Oil and Natural Gas Engineering, Southwest Petroleum University, Chengdu, China Jingguo Du College of Mining Engineering, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, China Chaochen Ren College of Petroleum Engineering, China University of Petroleum-Beijing, Beijing, China Yinhua Liu Engineering Technology Research Institute of PetroChina Coalbed Methane Co., Ltd., Xi’an, China Xincheng Gao The First Work Area of Nanpu Operation Area of CNPC Jidong Oilfield, Tangshan, China Long Li Exploration and Development Research Institute, Southwest Oil & Gas Field Company, PetroChina, Chengdu, China Journal Article 2024 06 30 Before developing and producing a shale gas resource, it is critical to research estimated ultimate recovery (EUR). This research splits shale gas well production into five flow stages, to better understand the variables influencing EUR following shale gas fracturing and qualitatively evaluate the effect degree of each element on EUR. We fully examine contemporary research on the influencing variables of EUR following shale gas fracturing from three perspectives: geology, engineering, and production, and explain in detail 13 major regulating parameters impacting EUR in different flow phases. Based on the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), an  evaluation model for the primary regulating elements of EUR following shale gas fracturing has been constructed. To test the novel model, actual data from  production wells in a shale gas field in China was used. The optimal well for the current production system after shale gas fracturing is determined, and suggestions and improvement directions for the remaining gas wells’ production systems are proposed.