10.57647/j.ijes.2025.1701.08

Determination of cobalt concentration using nonlinear regression and Monte Carlo simulation in Zafarghand Region, Isfahan

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  • Zahra Varmazyari1,
  • Seyyed Saeed Ghannadpour*1,
  • Homayoon Katibeh1,
  1. Department of Mining Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Determination of cobalt concentration using nonlinear regression and Monte Carlo simulation in Zafarghand Region, Isfahan

Received: 2024-03-10

Revised: 2024-06-11

Accepted: 2024-08-16

Published 2025-01-10

Copyright (c) 2025 Zahra Varmazyari, Seyyed Saeed Ghannadpour, Homayoon Katibeh (Author)

Creative Commons License

This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.

How to Cite

Varmazyari, Z. ., Ghannadpour, S. S. ., & Katibeh, H. . (2025). Determination of cobalt concentration using nonlinear regression and Monte Carlo simulation in Zafarghand Region, Isfahan. Iranian Journal of Earth Sciences, 17(1), 1-9. https://doi.org/10.57647/j.ijes.2025.1701.08
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Abstract

Contamination of heavy metals can change the properties of the soil, biological reduction activity of soil nutrients, also, by entering the food chain, it is considered dangerous for humans. Considering the importance of pollution in the environment, in this research, it has been tried to introduce an estimator to determine the concentration of Co element. In this research, Zafarghand exploration area is considered as a case study (Central Iran, Northeast of Isfahan). There were lithogeochemical data of 184 samples collected and analyzed for major and trace element concentration by ICP-MS. In the first step, nonlinear regression was used to create a model and estimate the concentration of Co element. In the next step, Co concentration value was simulated with the help of the created model and the Monte Carlo simulation method. The results obtained from the combination of nonlinear regression and Monte Carlo simulation show the accuracy and acceptable efficiency of this simulation, so that the mean value of Co concentration was close in the modeling to the values measured in the laboratory. According to the obtained result, the level of Co element in the studied area was in the range of (0.45-0.75) (mg/kg) with a confidence level of 90 percent. This value is below the background limit (less than 1.3010). In addition, in this research, sensitivity analysis was used to determine the most effective input parameter in determining the concentration of Co. Based on the obtained results, the most influential variable in this estimate is the amount of iron It should be noted that the use of this methodology is recommended for determining other heavy metal concentrations in different study areas.

Keywords

  • Cobalt,
  • Regression,
  • Simulation,
  • Monte Carlo
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