OICC Press Agricultural Marketing and Commercialization 2676-7570 10 1 2026 06 30 Modeling the Relationship between Real Earnings Management and Accruals Over Time 10.57647/amc.2026.100105 EN Niloofar Hashemian Mohsen Sadeghi Department of Accounting, Mo.C., Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran Farzad Karimi Department of Management, Mo.C, Islamic Azad University, Isfahan, Iran Journal Article 2026 06 30 The use of traditional variables and models in explaining the factors affecting real and accrual-based earnings management has faced numerous challenges in the literature. Accordingly, the objective of the present study is to model the relationship between real earnings management and accruals over time. The present research is applied and exploratory. The study's time horizon covers the period 2011-2023. Data from 131 listed companies were used in estimating the model. First, the determinants of real and accrual-based earnings management were theoretically explained; then, using Bayesian econometrics and the “Bayesian Model Averaging” method in MATLAB, the models of real and accrual-based earnings management were estimated. By performing the calculations and examining the effects of 56 factors that had been identified in empirical studies as affecting accrual-based earnings management and 13 factors affecting real earnings management, it was determined that the effects of 8 variables on these two types of earnings management were significant, and that these variables consistently maintained their effects in the presence of other variables; in other words, they were robust. Based on the results of the time-varying parameter model approach, the average net effect over the entire period in the model in which real earnings management is the dependent variable is smaller than in the case where accrual-based earnings management is the dependent variable; in other words, in calculating the net effect, it is observed that, in its overall trend, real earnings management substitutes for accrual-based earnings management. According to the results, in the short term, the relationship between real and accrual-based earnings management is positive and complementary. In contrast, in the medium and long term, it is substitutive.